I wish that the fire in Syria won't spread so much to the world as I finish my article. That was the my wish in the end of my last article.The first days of 2016 , unfortunately I must specify that the fire grows further in the Middle East. As I stressed in my previous article , I believe that the main reason is of Syria's and Irag's civil war is a secterian conflict which is chronic disease.
Shiite block led by Iran has so far managed to keep up Assad regime by military support of Russia. Shiite alliance to gain power against Sunni block leader Saudi Arabia gave further hardening response security policies. The day before yesterday Saudi Arabia has declared no more ceasefire in Yemen and after that executed 47 people, including a dissident Shiite cleric. Shia world's reaction did not delay for those executions. Tehran has issued a statement to condemn executions and announced that Saudi government will pay a heavy price for following such policies. Sunni allie USA does not want include too muchto arm wristle in region until choose his new president. The other Sunni bloc allie Nato is like a monster who can not bite. While countinuing secterian tension , Kurdish groups which is the only force fighting with ISIS terror in the field keep the continuing their progress even if it is slow.
Kurdish administrators who thinks they were forgotten in the Sykes-Pikos agreement 100 years ago , minded build their own country by combining the cantons. It seems that the biggest obstacle in front of their accounts will be reactions of the neighbour countries and differences between eachothers. Indeed , while region turns out such a fire circle , it seems to impossible to predict not next months even a few days later.
My 2016 prediction is that pessimism and hope intertwined entered state for ciwil war in Syria and Iraq. The Assad regime who supports by Russian army and Iraqi central government army are continuing their slow but steady progress in Iraq and Syria. Currently, there is an agreement on a common enemy ISIS. All the question marks is about what will happen after the cleaning of ISIS. Assad regime and Iraq central goverment both know will face with Kurdish groups by proceeding northward eventually. Even if the central governments wish return to the past years , Kurdish administrators seem to keep the fighting until they create one Kurdistan of the two countries wreck.
My guess is the next step in the war will be between Kurdish groups backed up by West powers and central goverments backed up by Iran and Russia. Appearing from today , it seems the future of two countries will not be able to drawn without war. The world public duty task should be gather all active countries and representatives of groups around a table. By finishing of the first article of the new year , I want to express my last month wish again and with a stronger voice. I hope the fire in Syria won't spread so much to the world.